Sports Illustrated Blog #96 – Pricing and more…   Welcome to my Sports Illustrated/TIME magazine blog – Your collector’s guide to the latest hobby updates and insight into what’s trending now.     Today’s blog will run the gamut on opinions, emotions, hobby updates and advice.  As my readers will attest, this is mostly an opinion blog and I make no apology for my thoughts on the hobby.    First thought – the hobby is exploding with excitement however, I believe pricing, in some cases, has accelerated faster than actual value.   In my mind, value has three components – comparison pricing based on yesterday, today’s value, and future pricing.  In a fast growing market, comparison pricing can be antiquated and not reflective of what’s happening now.  Today’s pricing feels the safest for buyer and seller.  Then there is future pricing.  What the heck is that?  As a seller and investor in this hobby, I think I understand the concept of selling too early.  If the hobby (selling prices) is growing faster than inflation, than it makes sense to either hold or try to sell at the forecasted/estimated value – 3 mo, 6 mo, 1 yr, etc.  For example, I sold the 81 Gretzky for $8000 four years ago.  If I were to obtain another, what would be the selling price – $8000 plus inflation for four years?  I don’t think so.  We’re talking $100,000 plus.  Why?  Because as the hobby matures and more investors become intimately involved, there are collectors who want the best, the only, the most coveted.  Price is not an object.  When you have one of these, patience is a virtue and today’s pricing has very little relevance.    But what about those pieces on the fringes – the one’s that draw interest but are certainly not destined to lead the hobby?  I am seeing future pricing on these that I will not live to see the value.    Some have perceived an opportunity but have not invested the time, the energy or the analysis to justify their pricing.  Yes it’s a fledgling market, prone to speculation but you must do your homework and trust your instincts.  There are great opportunities out there – there are also not so great opportunities. Speculative buying is just that – speculative and it’s buyer beware.   Second thought –   CGC’s walk through is now 21 days.  I will never understand (maybe those in manufacturing can help me deal) how I could place an order today and be quoted a lead time of 9 days and then be told, without explanation a day later, it’s now 21 days.  Either they moved orders which came in after me, ahead of me, or they had no idea what they were quoting in the first place.  And the get out of jail free card is – “we don’t guarantee our deliveries”.  Too bad our hobby is so dependent on this type of mediocre performance.   Third thought – Pay attention to registries or “a set within a set” – all covers of certain athletes (not just the first) – Jordan, Magic, Bird, Rose, Clay/Ali, Mantle, Mays, Brady, James, and more will outperform the market.  All these high grade covers have more than a passing collector interest.   Fourth thought – Raw mags.  Raw mags have always been risky – hidden restoration, stains, inside damage but they are the excitement of the hobby.  It’s like the lottery.  If you get lucky, you can make some money.    As sell prices for graded reach new heights, month after month, more hobbyists are willing to bet the risk/reward on raw mags hoping to strike graded gold.   Vintage, raw, high grade, newsstand SI mags are VERY hard to find.  Early on, the cover athlete was first consideration, then grade.  Now it’s reversed.    Almost any vintage, high grade, newsstand, cover is worth a certain amount of speculation. Fifth thought – Recently, I participated in an on line video chat organized by Jim Kehoe with about nine other joiners.  It was fun, entertaining and informative.  I hope Jim continues with this event.   I hope you are enjoying the reads on the history of SI, SPORT, and TIME magazines as well as an insight into relevant magazine collecting. Great collecting to you and best fortunes with Sports Illustrated/SPORT magazines. For a complete review of previous blogs, please visit www.sportsillustrated98.com

Sports Illustrated Blog #94 – High Grade, Subsequent Issues. Welcome to my Sports Illustrated/TIME magazine blog – Your collector’s guide to the latest hobby updates and insight into what’s trending now.     Collectors love Michael Jordan.  Who wouldn’t want to own every (50) SI Jordan in CGC 9.8?  Of course, we all would and there are a few collectors out there intent on making it happen. How about Brady?  James?  Mantle?  This blog is written to put forth the premise that subsequent superstar covers have a value, a real value.  We all want to own the first issue of all superstars but there are serious collectors that want to be the #1 Registry in Jordan, Brady, James, Mantle, etc., etc., etc. Many first covers are not esthetic, unworthy of their lofty status, or shared with other athletes.  For example, Jordan, LeBron (Slam), E. Smith, Alcindor, B Jackson, and many of the newer covers exhibit these features.  In these cases, subsequent covers may actually out-price the first cover. That means any CGC 9.8 of these stars has a serious value.  There is and there will be none higher.  For example, many of the 50 Jordan’s, in raw, are widely available in public auctions – but in 9.8??? it’s a gamble.  The availability is the allure.  So the competition is on for the best collection.  Watch and see how the Jordan etc., highest grade buy prices trend in the near future.  My suspicion is that they will easily out pace a fast escalating market.            Right now, subsequent covers are available at what I consider bargain prices.  The grade is the key.  Lower grades (9.6 and below) will not fare as well.  My specific reference for this blog refers only to CGC 9.8 on post 1990 issues.   Earlier vintage issues – pre 1980 – may not have a CGC 9.8 available.  For example, most of Mantle’s do not.      Don’t automatically pass on High Grade, subsequent covers without taking a closer look.  You might be passing on gold.     Best of luck. I hope you are enjoying the reads on the history of SI, SPORT, and TIME magazines as well as an insight into relevant magazine collecting. Great collecting to you and best fortunes with Sports Illustrated/SPORT magazines. For a complete review of previous blogs, please visit www.sportsillustrated98.com

Welcome to my Sports Illustrated/TIME magazine blog – Your collector’s guide to the latest hobby updates and insight into what’s trending now.

Recently, a raw third cover, Magic Johnson, which I estimate the grade to be CGC 6-7, sold on eBay for $887.  As you know, I am the biggest proponent of vintage, high grade, SI values, but this one even impressed me.  And it’s not an anomaly because two bidders were in that range.

Folks, this hobby is on a rocket ship flight.  Even now, there are many, many, value buys out there.  What you thought was impossible, has become the routine.  But with these bold statements come with a caveat – all good things come to an end and collectables are very susceptible to that axiom so be cautious in your investments.

The rapidly escalating prices of SI raw mags is a solid indicator of the market’s view of the rarity/scarcity of high grade, vintage SI, SPORT, SLAM and other major pubs current availability.  With cards, rare could mean 1000’s.  In mags it could easily mean one!

At this point in the SI graded mag evolution, I’d say “be careful”.    I think, with the escalating prices we’ve seen in SI, my opinion is to look in the obvious next progression of the hobby – SPORT, BASEBALL, RING, SLAM, GOAL, and others for the real values ahead of the curve.  Sports Illustrated is still King but the King is not cheap, however I have a saying – “Cadillacs are not affected by recession.”

If you plan on entering the hobby for fun or investment, know that if you’re looking to score a CGC 9.8, you’re not operating in a vacuum and your purchase price will, more than likely, be commensurate with market values.  But today’s prices, for the most part, still seem to be a bargain when compared with future estimates. 

The landscape is evolving.  Be careful on the extent of your participation but intuitive investors will still find gold, and lots of it.

Best of luck.

I hope you are enjoying the reads on the history of SI, SPORT, and TIME magazines as well as an insight into relevant magazine collecting.

Great collecting to you and best fortunes with Sports Illustrated/SPORT magazines.

For a complete review of previous blogs, please visit 

www.sportsillustrated98.com

Welcome to my Sports Illustrated/TIME magazine blog – Your collector’s guide to the latest hobby updates and insight into what’s trending now.

This blog has never been about negative issues and I’m not about to start now.  This is not a complaint but more of a gentle reminder that we, customers of CGC, are experiencing a higher rate than normal regarding damaged CGC shipments. 

For the past two years, CGC has been, in my opinion, overwhelmed with new business and has become so prosperous that they may have slipped into a trance of complacency.  Specifically, their shipping quality control seems to have been left unchecked.

In support for this supposition, my last three submissions have been received with cracked cases.  I watched a SI video on line where the guy was opening a box of graded SI’s and 5 of them had cracked cases.  These are not just random guys.  They are two of the biggest dealers in graded magazines in the hobby.  I have always been a stat guy so I’m surmising that there are bunch of other disappointed customers with the same issues.

The biggest downside to damaged shipments is that if you originally paid for walk thru service, you will lose your priority status upon re-submission and be placed at the end the of re-holder line – two to four months.

If you are experiencing quality issues with CGC shipping, I am suggesting with each case, you let them know you’re not happy about it.  Perhaps if enough customers voice their displeasure, CGC will review their processes and implement some very simple changes to improve their quality performance.

Best of luck.

I hope you are enjoying the reads on the history of SI, SPORT, and TIME magazines as well as an insight into relevant magazine collecting.

Great collecting to you and best fortunes with Sports Illustrated/SPORT magazines.

For a complete review of previous blogs, please visit 

www.sportsillustrated98.com

Sports Illustrated Blog #91 – Brady’s Back!

Welcome to my Sports Illustrated/TIME magazine blog – Your collector’s guide to the latest hobby updates and insight into what’s trending now.

Yes, Brady’s Back!  A race between the Energizer Bunny and Brady – who wins?  I wonder if Brady’s back will be on the cover of the next SI.

Why is it important?  Every update, every breaking story, every tidbit in our collector/memorabilia business, is relevant.  With few exceptions, notably the $500,000 football you’ve heard tell about, Brady back in the headlines is great for the hobby and great for Brady memorabilia holders.

More touchdowns, more yards, more wins, the possibility of another Super Bowl – it couldn’t be more fascinating.  Pricing on Brady magazines has been based on what we knew – the numbers were final and in the books.  That’s all changed.  Now, Brady is another year on the front page.  Whatever his value was, it just got a spike. 

For all you Brady holders, the fairy tale lives on.  What happens if he has another MVP year?  Super Bowl?  Smart betters have quit doubting Brady.  In my opinion, if that happens, Brady will have to be included in any goat debate naming Jordan/Mantle/Gretzky/Clay and his collector value will move from the super bargain to six or seven figures.  Considering Brady mags are much newer, that’s a big ask – watch and see.

Don’t be on the outside looking in.  It’s a great time to be a buyer.

I hope you are enjoying the reads on the history of SI, SPORT, and TIME magazines as well as an insight into relevant magazine collecting.

Great collecting to you and best fortunes with Sports Illustrated/SPORT magazines.

For a complete review of previous blogs, please visit 

www.sportsillustrated98.com

Welcome to my Sports Illustrated/TIME magazine blog – Your collector’s guide to the latest hobby updates and insight into what’s trending now.

Congratulations to the new owner of the Sports Illustrated Wayne Gretzky, FC, 1981, CGC 9.4, – $30,000 – a new record!  And also congratulations to our hobby.  This was a meaningful auction because it moved the needle a little closer to spotlighting the true value of these pieces of art.

Over the years, I’ve been writing about the investment value of Newsstand SI’s and how we were on the “front” edge of the hobby.  I still believe that’s true but with bid records falling monthly now, we’re certainly moving into a better understanding of the cosmetics, hobby interest and scarcity SI’s (graded or ungraded) have to offer.  SI is truly a magnificent publication.

So what is next?  Heritage now has a Brady SI 2002 First Cover, CGC 9.8, None Higher, “Amazing” up for auction as well as The SI First Issue CGC 9.8, None Higher.  Results of these auctions will give us even more insight into where we are on the hobby maturity scale – will investors continue to scoop up these unbelievable bargains at fire sale prices?

Readers should remember that I am a total believer magazine prices today are still significantly undervalued (as witnessed by the Gretzky sale). When we look back one year from now, these high grade, super star covers will have increased in price many times over, if you will be able to buy them at all. 

There is another movement in the hobby that is not so quietly making its presence known – high grade, vintage, raw SI’s.  Raw SI’s which routinely sold for $25 – $50 just six months ago, may now cost you $500 or $1000 or even $2000 today.  In my opinion, that evolution is caused by more buyers competing over the same hobby inventory with the intention of grading their own.  As a result, the graded magazine inventory is growing to the point where it has unleashed a pent up participation interest as it makes finding covers of interest increasingly possible to find.  That attracts new collectors, passive hobbyists, and new investors – all part of the massive growth of the hobby.

Growth is good.  Growth leads to higher buy and sell prices.

I’m buying at today’s prices because I believe tomorrow’s sell prices will justify that decision.

Things are really moving. I love it.

I hope you are enjoying the reads on the history of SI, SPORT, and TIME magazines as well as an insight into relevant magazine collecting.

Great collecting to you and best fortunes with Sports Illustrated/SPORT magazines.

For a complete review of previous blogs, please visit 

www.sportsillustrated98.com

Sports Illustrated Blog #89 – Values, Opportunities 

Welcome to my Sports Illustrated/TIME magazine blog – Your collector’s guide to the latest hobby updates and insight into what’s trending now.

We’re about to witness our first public offering of a high grade, highly coveted, super star Sports Illustrated magazine.  Heritage Auction has listed a 1981 Wayne Gretzky, CGC 9.4, first cover that will gavel in about three weeks. 

One development that has held the lid on even greater profit taking in our hobby is the reluctance of impact collectors to actually offer their highest valued stuff in public auction.  I’ve blogged about it several times previously so I won’t bother detailing their reasons here.

Of the many super star 9.8 and 9.6 issues I’ve sold – Gretzky, Musial, Mays, Williams, Clay, Robinson, to name a few, all are still with their original owners.  This Gretzky represents the first, five figure issue of its type to hit public auction, albeit a modest 9.4. 

Fact – our hobby has a few pioneers – those individuals that saw the value early on and have been buying the best of the best for the past five years.  For example, as part of my start-up operation, I sold a CGC 9.8 Gretzky four years ago for $8000.  At the time, it was somewhat of a buyer’s risk – but it’s easily worth ten times that amount today.   And these few pioneers are happy to keep gobbling up the most premium stuff at Super, and I emphasize Super, discounted prices that have lagged so far behind their actual and/or projected value, it’s just an investor’s bonanza.

Because they are the only game in town for now, they have self-imposed limits, suppressing the really big advances – a monopoly of sorts.  This Gretzky auction may bring out the first “no limit” buyers – buyers that will change the landscape as we now know it.  When that happens, across the board pricing will increase not incrementally, but hundreds and hundreds of percentage points at a time. 

In just three to four years, the value increases we’ve seen on these high grade, iconic issues, kind of makes you wonder when auction numbers will begin to actually reflect where the market is headed and not where it is.  Maybe Gretzky will be the first.  

I predict this Gretzky will surpass the ALL IN total of $15,000, a number I consider the ice breaker signaling the beginning of a movement that will quickly gather growing momentum.

If you can believe my value scale below – if a 1983 CGC 9.8 Jordan cover were to hit the market today (value uncertainty keeps this from happening), you would quickly understand why owners are not selling.  The top line is what I project the value for a one of a kind, significant demand superstar cover.  The rest would follow based on the top number. 

1983 Sports Illustrated Michael Jordan, FC, CGC 9.8
Believe or Not…  I’m always inviting someone to prove me wrong.
9.8 – $1MM
9.6 – $500M
9.4 – $100M
9.2 – $50M
9.0 – $25M

Is this crazy or what?  And guess what? – there are several other mag publications just waiting their turn for the same type of value increases.

What an awesome time to be on the leading edge of such a great opportunity.
Best of Luck.

I hope you are enjoying the reads on the history of SI, SPORT, and TIME magazines as well as an insight into relevant magazine collecting.

Great collecting to you and best fortunes with Sports Illustrated/SPORT magazines.

For a complete review of previous blogs, please visit www.sportsillustrated98.com

Welcome to my Sports Illustrated/TIME magazine blog – Your collector’s guide to the latest hobby updates and insight into what’s trending now.

With the Whales on the sidelines, our hobby, graded Sports Illustrated and SPORT magazines, is expanding in number of sellers and public auction sales.  For years the Whales have been complaining about not enough inventory, not enough sellers, not enough competition……

Complain no longer.  New sales of graded mags are routinely in the 5 figures.  Check the list of bona fide sellers of graded mags currently listing on eBay.   You’ll find 30 to 50 sellers with hot, high grade mags, each one topping the other for supreme grade.  You’ll find this month’s sold list of five figure sales topping 20 units with 100’s topping the millennium mark. 

This is all happening while the Whales sit on the sidelines absolutely refusing to sell anything in their inventory.  Here’s why – they know that we have only scratched the surface with realized sell values of graded mags.

The Whales know that 100’s of graded issues are still waaaaaay undervalued.

In my opinion, it is an extremely good sign that the Whales are not selling.  They’re betting on the future of our hobby.  Look at what’s happening – graded mags sales are hot, newsstand copies sales are hot, guys are now making informational videos, new graded sellers entering hundreds/thousands of entries into the hobby every month …. 

No more Whale complaints. 

For years, I have been predicting this movement. I hope you have stocked your collection because you are about to take a serious upgrade in value. 

I am also advising to keep buying!

We are nowhere near the top of the mountain.  My opinion and advice is to keep buying until we see the Whales start selling their best stuff.  I will keep you appraised of that and my guess is, we are a long ways away from that happening.

What an awesome time to be on the leading edge of such a great opportunity.

Best of Luck.

I hope you are enjoying the reads on the history of SI, SPORT, and TIME magazines as well as an insight into relevant magazine collecting.

Great collecting to you and best fortunes with Sports Illustrated/SPORT magazines.

For a complete review of previous blogs, please visit 
www.sportsillustrated98.com

Welcome to my Sports Illustrated/TIME magazine blog – Your collector’s guide to the latest hobby updates and insight into what’s trending now.

Vintage SI’s from the 50’s, 60’s, 70’s and 80’s are realizing much higher point of sale values without being graded.  There are several reasons for this market shift in the hobby.

1. They’re scarce – much scarcer than the hobby realizes.
2. They’re very expensive to grade and the time allotted for grading is prohibitive in a changing hobby.
3. They’re esthetic.  They’re beautiful.  Not only the first cover stars but even the commons tell a story that needs to be re-told.

Add this up and you have a recipe for increasing customer demand – just try to tell a collector he can’t have something.  That’s where these vintage newsstand issues stand right now.  They’re hard to find.  Of course, we have seen the super star ungraded covers routinely sell well into the four figures and second tier/commons have followed right along.

Although I have seen a few graded subscription copies sold, for the most part, these issues have no increasing values.

My opinion here is that this is a not a trend, but a movement, that will continue as long as hobbyists continue to have few other reasonable options.  I also predict that high quality newsstand issues from this era will end up having retail values 2 to 3 times higher than anyone else in the market is currently predicting.

So the message is clear, vintage newsstands are a bargain.  Watch and see. 

I’d also like to update my readership on my revolutionary “never will be beat” designation.  I have now labeled over 100 graded items “never to be beat”.  Still batting 1.000.  I’ll keep everyone posted as to updates. 

I hope you are enjoying the reads on the history of SI, SPORT, and TIME magazines as well as an insight into relevant magazine collecting.

Great collecting to you and best fortunes with Sports Illustrated/TIME!

For a complete review of previous blogs, please visit 

www.sportsillustrated98.com

Welcome to my Sports Illustrated/SPORT/TIME magazine blog – Your collector’s guide to the latest hobby updates and insight into what’s trending now.

For example, unless your car has no steering wheel, no tires, or no engine, you wouldn’t typically describe your item for sale by listing the things it doesn’t have.  So why are so many magazine sellers on EBay calling out what is NOT on their covers? 

When you look at the cover picture, you can clearly see it does not have a mailing label.  So why waste time and advertising space to say “no label”.   We all know the answer to this question.

It’s purely a deceptive advertising tool used to gain a higher selling price.  It is meant to trick the buyer into thinking it’s a newsstand issue, which typically will sell for 10 times the subscription issue price.  I can clearly see it has no label.  But I can’t clearly see that the label has been removed. 

“No Label” means it’s a subscription issue that has had the address label removed.

I am appealing to all magazine sellers that sell one or both, newsstand and/or subscription issues – please call out what you are actually selling. 

It’s either subscription, label removed or newsstand.

We buyers will be very appreciative of your truth in advertising and trust you more as we do business going forward. 

I hope you are enjoying the reads on the history of SI/SPORT/TIME magazines as well as an insight into relevant magazine collecting.

Great collecting to you and best fortunes with SI/SPORT/TIME!

For a complete review of previous blogs, please visit 

www.sportsillustrated98.com